美国房地产市场预示经济衰退来临

type

status

date

slug

summary

America's property market suggests recession is on the way

美国的房地产市场表明衰退即将来临

As developers find clever ways to cut mortgage rates, the Fed may fight back.

随着开发商找到降低抵押贷款利率的巧妙方法，美联储可能会进行反击

The importance of American housing resides not so much in its absolute size, big though it is at about $45trn in total value. Rather, it serves as a bellwether of the economy's performance amid rising interest rates. Has the Federal Reserve lifted rates by enough to calm inflation without crushing growth? Has it gone too far? Or, perhaps, not far enough? As one of the earliest and largest sectors to react to changes, the property market offers some answers.

美国住房的重要性不在于其绝对规模，尽管它的总价值约为45万亿美元。相反，它是经济在利率上升过程中表现的一个风向标。美联储是否已将利率提高到足以平抑通货膨胀而不至于压垮增长？它是否走得太远？或者，也许，还不够远？作为对变化作出反应的最早和最大的行业之一，房地产市场提供了一些答案。

Until the past month, the evidence seemed pretty straightforward. Even before the Fed started jacking up its policy rate, mortgage lenders, anticipating the bank's tightening, had started charging more. From　3% at the end of 2021, the rate on 30-year fixed mortgages surpassed 7% by October, the highest in more than two decades. Lo and behold, activity quickly tailed off. Buyers stayed on the sidelines. Builders scaled back new construction projects. Sellers trimmed prices.

在过去的一个月里，证据似乎是非常直接的。甚至在美联储开始提高其政策利率之前，抵押贷款机构，预计到银行的紧缩，已经开始收取更多的利息。从2021年底的3%，到（2022）10月份，30年固定抵押贷款的利率超过了7%，是20多年来的最高值。看吧，（房产交易）活动迅速减少。购房者保持观望。建筑商缩减了新的建筑项目。卖家降低了价格。

But recently, signs of an early and largely unexpected rebound have emerged, prompting concerns that higher rates are not having the desired effect. New-home sales jumped in January to a ten-month high. Surveys gauging the confidence of both homebuilders and homebuyers have improved. 但最近，早期的、基本上出乎意料的反弹迹象出现了，促使人们担心更高的利率并没有产生预期的效果。1月份的新房销售跃升至10个月的高点。评估房屋建筑商和购房者信心的调查都增加了。

The case for optimism is that America's property market has found a floor. Buyers are returning but the covid-era frenzy is not. A decent spring season could, in theory, allow prices to stabilize and builders to resume construction, boosting growth without stoking inflation. The case for pessimism rests on the idea that the interaction between the property market and inflationary trends is too powerful to ignore: if buyers return to a supply-constrained housing market, price rises will follow. And if the Fed sees that such a rate-sensitive sector as property is not responding to tighter monetary policy, it may judge that it needs to be more hawkish. Unfortunately for America, and the world, the pessimistic case looks more plausible.

乐观的理由是，美国的房地产市场已经找到了一个底线。购房者正在回归，但Covid时代的狂热并没有出现。从理论上讲，一个好的春季季节可以使价格稳定下来，建筑商恢复施工，在不刺激通货膨胀的情况下促进增长。悲观的理由是，房地产市场和通货膨胀趋势之间的相互影响太强大了，不能忽视：如果买家回到供应紧张的住房市场，价格上涨将随之而来。如果美联储看到房地产这样一个对利率敏感的部门没有对紧缩的货币政策作出反应，它可能会判断它需要更加激进。对美国和世界来说，不幸的是，悲观的情况看起来更有说服力。

Perhaps most crucially, developers have drawn up a menu of incentives. There is nothing unusual about using discounts when the market falters; the novel element, this time, has been aggressive use of mortgage buydowns through in-house lenders, in effect prepaying some interest on behalf of customers to reduce mortgage rates. This has allowed developers to offer mortgages that seem to emanate from the pre-inflation era of the 2010s. Pulte, a homebuilder, has priced 30- year fixed rates at just 4.25% on some of its nearly complete properties. Toll Brothers, another builder, offers 4.99%.

也许最关键的是，开发商已经制定了一个优惠菜单。当市场疲软时，使用折扣并没有什么不寻常的；这次的新元素是通过内部贷款机构积极使用抵押贷款买断，实际上是代表客户预付一些利息以降低抵押贷款利率。这使得开发商能够提供似乎来自2010年代通货膨胀前时代的抵押贷款。Pulte是一家住宅建筑商，它的一些接近完成的房产的30年固定利率定价仅为4.25%。另一家建筑商Toll Brothers则提供4.99%的利率。

reside v.属于，在于

bellwether n.领头羊

straightforward adj.简单的

jack up 提高

surpass v.超出

lo and behold 你瞧

tail off 变小，减弱

sidelines n.边线，场外

scale back 缩减

trim v.削减

rebound n.反弹

prompt v.导致，促使

desired adj.想要的

gauge v.判断，估计

frenzy n.疯狂

resume v.恢复

stoke v.激起

interaction n.相互作用

constrain v.限制

monetary adj.货币的

hawkish adj.鹰派的

plausible adj.似合理的可信的

draw up 制定 incentive n.优惠 falter v.减弱，衰退 novel adj.新的 buydown 买断 prepay v.预先支付 emanate v.发自，来自