人工智能引发经济革命被夸大了吗？

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Your job is (probably) safe from artificial intelligence

你的工作在人工智能面前（可能）是安全的

Why predictions of an imminent economic revolution are overstated

为什么对即将发生的经济革命的预测被夸大了？

The age of "generative"artificial intelligence has well and truly arrived. OpenAI's chatbots, which use large-language-model (LLM) technology, got the ball rolling in November. Now barely a day goes by without some mind-blowing advance. An AI-powered song featuring a fake "Drake"and "The Weeknd"recently shook the music industry. Programs which convert text tovideo are making fairly convincing content. Before long consumer products such as Expedia, Instacart and OpenTable will plug into Openai's bots, allowing people to order food or book a holiday by typing text into a box. A recently leaked presentation, reportedly from a Google engineer, suggests the tech giant is worried about how easy it is for rivals to make progress. There isd more to come— probably a lot more.

“生成式”人工智能的时代已经真正到来。使用大型语言模型（LLM）技术的OpenAI聊天机器人，在11月开始启动。现在，几乎每天都会有一些令人震惊的进展。最近，一首由人工智能驱动的歌曲以虚假的"Drake"和"The Weeknd"客串，震撼了音乐界。将文本转换成视频的程序正在制作相当有说服力的内容。不久之后，Expedia、Instacart和OpenTable等消费产品将接入OpenAI的机器人，让人们通过在一个文框里输入文字来订购食物或预订假期。最近泄露的一份据说来自谷歌工程师的报告表明，这家科技巨头担心竞争对手取得进展有多么容易。还有更多的事情要发生--可能会有很多。

imminent adj.即将做出的 get the ball rolling 行动起来 overstate v.夸大 barely adv.几乎不

The development of AI raises profound questions. Perhaps most pressing, though, is a straightforward one. What does this mean for the economy? Many have grand expectations. New research by Goldman Sachs, a bank, suggests that "widespread AI adoption could eventually drive a 7% or almost $7trn increase in annual global GDP over a ten-year period."Academic studies point to a three-percentage-point rise in annual labour-productivity growth in firms that adopt the technology, which would represent a huge uplift in incomes compounded over many years. A study published in 2021 by Tom Davidson of Open Philanthropy, a grantmaking outfit, puts a more than 10% chance on "explosive growth"— defined as increases in global output of more than 30% a year-sometime this century. A few economists, only half-jokingly, hold out the possibility of global incomes becoming infinite.

人工智能的发展提出了深刻的问题。不过，最紧迫的也许是一个简单的问题。这对经济意味着什么？许多人有宏大的期望。高盛银行的新研究表明，"人工智能的广泛采用最终可以在十年内推动全球年GDP增长7%或近7万亿美元。"学术研究指出，在采用该技术的公司中，每年的劳动生产率增长将上升三个百分点，这将代表多年来累积收入的巨大提升。资助机构Open Philanthropy的汤姆-戴维森在2021年发表的一份研究报告指出，本世纪某段时间出现" 爆炸性增长“的可能性超过10%——定义为全球产出每年增加30%以上。一些经济学家，只半开玩笑地认为全球收入有可能变得无限大。

pressing adj.紧迫的 straightforward adj.简单的 adoption n.采用 uplift n.提升 grantmaking n.赠款资助 outfit n.机构 output n.产出 hold out 坚持 infinite adj.无限的

Financial markets, however, point to rather more modest outcomes. In the past year share prices of companies involved in AI have done worse than the global average, although they have risen in recent months. Interest rates are another clue. If people thought that the technology was going to make everyone richer tomorrow, rates would rise because there would be less need to save. Inflation-adjusted rates and subsequent GDP growth are strongly correlated, notes research by Basil Halperin of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and colleagues. Yet since the hype about AI began in November, long-term rates have fallen. They remain very low by historical standards.. Financial markets, the researchers conclude, "are not expecting a high probability of... AI-induced growth acceleration... on at least a 30-to-50-year time horizon."

”然而，金融市场表明了更温和的结果。在过去的一年里，参与人工智能的公司的股价表现比全球平均水平差，尽管它们在最近几个月有所上升。利率是另一个线索。如果人们认为这项技术明天会让每个人变得更富有，利率就会上升，因为对储蓄的需求会减少。麻省理工学院的Basil Halperin及其同事的研究指出，经通货膨胀调整的利率和随后的GDP增长密切相关。然而，自从11月开始炒作人工智能以来，长期利率已经下降了。按照历史标准，它们仍然非常低。研究人员总结说，金融市场“至少在30至50年的时间范围内，对人工智能引起的增长加速的概率预期不高"。

subsequent adj.随后的 induce v.引发 correlate v.相关联 horizon n.范围