美元会被取代吗？

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The power and the limits of the American dollar

美元的力量和局限性

——The greenback is still king. But those whowant to evade it are finding ways to do so

——美钞仍然是王。但那些想避开它的人正在寻找方法。

Every so often an appetite surges for an alternative reserve currency to the dollar— and a market booms in predictions of the greenback's imminent demise. For nearly three-quarters of a century the dollar has at a global scale dominated trade, finance and the rainy-day reserve portfolios of central banks. Yet high inflation, fractious geopolitics and the sanctions imposed by America and its allies on countries such as Russia have lately caused dollar-doubters to become vocal once again.

每隔一段时间，人们对替代美元的储备货币的欲望就会激增——市场在预测美钞即将消亡的情况下蓬勃发展。近四分之三个世纪以来，美元在全球范围内主导了贸易、金融和中央银行的应急储备组合。然而，高通胀、纷争不断的地缘政治以及美国及其盟友对俄罗斯等国实施的制裁，最近使怀疑美元的人再次发出声音。

evade v.逃避 appetite n.欲望 surge n.激增 alternative adj.可替代的 reserve currency储备货币 greenback n.美钞 imminent adj.迫近的 demise n.终止 fractious adj.易怒的 geopolitics n.地缘政治 vocal adj.发声

Often these episodes are fuelled by a world leader's spasm of anger towards the dollar. In 1965 Valéry Giscard d' Estaing, then France's finance minister, raged against the "exorbitant privilege"the greenback conferred on America. This time it was Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president, who on a recent visit to China called for emerging markets to trade using their own currencies. At the same time, a surging gold price and a fall in the dollar's share of global reserves has roused other doubters, who can also point to thismonth's admission by Janet Yellen, America's treasury secretary, that over time using sanctions "could undermine the hegemony" of the currency. It does nothelp that America could soon face a fiscal crisis if Congress fails to raise the ceiling that limits how much thegovernment ca brr.

这些事件往往是由世界领导人对美元的阵发性愤怒而引发的。1965年，时任法国财政部长的瓦莱里吉斯卡尔-德斯坦怒斥美钞赋予美国的"过高特权"。这次是巴西总统路易斯-伊纳西奥-卢拉-达席尔瓦，他在最近对中国的一次访问中呼吁新兴市场使用自己的货币进行交易。同时，黄金价格的飙升和美元在全球储备中份额的下降也激起了其他怀疑者，他们还可以指出本月美国财政部长珍妮特-耳伦承认随着时间的推移，使用制裁“可能会破坏该货币的霸权地位”。更糟的是，如果国会不能提高限制政府借贷额度的上限，美国可能很快就会面临财政危机。

episode n.一组事件 spasm n.阵发 exorbitant adj.过高的 privilege n.特权 confer v.授予 hegemony n.领导权

Yet the doubters' excitement has become detached from reality. The greenback exerts an almighty gravitational pull onthe world economy that has not materially weakened— even if America has recently found that there are real obstacles to exploiting its currency's pre-eminence.

然而，怀疑者们的兴奋已经脱离了现实。美钞对世界经济产生了巨大的引力，这种引力并没有实质性的减弱——哪怕美国最近发现，在利用其货币的卓越地位方面存在着真正的障碍。

detach v.脱离 exert v.施加 almighty adj.全能的 gravitational pull 引力 pre-eminence n.卓越

The starting advantage of the dollar is immense.Between a third and a half of global trade is invoiced in dollars，a share that hasbeen relatively stable over the long term.It is involved in nearly 90%of foreign-exchange transactions；such is the liquidity of the greenback that if you want to swap euros for Swiss francs，it can be cheaper to trade via dollars than to do so directly.About half ofcross-border debt is dollar-denominated.And although the dollar's share of central-bank reserves has fallen over the long term，it still accounts for about 60%of them.There is no sign of a dramaticrecent change，save that which has been caused mechanically by central banks revaluing their portfolios to take account of exchange-rate movements and higher interest rates in America.

美元的起始优势是巨大的。全球贸易的三分之一到二分之一是以美元开具发票的，这一份额长期以来一直相对稳定。美元参与了近90%的外汇交易；美元的流动性很强，如果你想把欧元换成瑞士法郎，通过美元交易可能比直接交易更便宜。大约一半的跨境债务是以美元结算的。尽管美元在中央银行储备中的份额长期以来一直在下降，但它仍占其中的60%左右。除了中央银行考虑到美国的汇率变动和更高的利率而重新估价其投资组合所造成的习惯性的变化外，近期没有任何迹象表明会出现骤然的变化。

immense adj.巨大的 swap v.交换 denominate v.结算