基辛格谈如何避免第三次世界大战

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Henry Kissinger explains how to avoid world war three

亨利-基辛格解释如何避免第三次世界大战

On May 27th Mr Kissinger will turn 100.Nobody alive has more experience of international affairs, first as a scholar of19th-century diplomacy, later as America' snational security adviser and secretary of state, and for the past 46 years as a consultant and emissary to monarchs, presidents and prime ministers. Mr Kissinger is worried. "Both sides have convinced themselves that the other represents a strategic danger,"he says. "We are on the path to great-power confrontation.”

5月27日，基辛格先生将满100岁。没有人比他更有国际事务的经验，他先是作为19世纪的外交学者，后来担任美国的国家安全顾问和国务卿，在过去的46年里，他还担任过君主、总统和总理的顾问和使者。基辛格先生很担心。"他说："双方都让自己相信，对方代表着一种战略危险。"我们正走在大国对抗的道路上"。

consultant n.顾问 emissary n.特使 monarch n.君主 represent v.代表 strategic adj.战略的 confrontation n.冲突，对抗

At the end of April The Economist spoke to Mr Kissinger for over eight hours about how to prevent the contest between China and America from descending into war. These days he is stooped and walks with difficulty, but his mind is needle-sharp. As he contemplates his next two books, on artificial intelligence and the nature of alliances, he remains more interested in looking forward than raking over the past.

4月底，《经济学人》杂志与基辛格先生就如何防止中国和美国之间的竞争陷入战争进行了长达8个多小时的交谈。这些天来，他弯腰驼背，行走困难，但他的思维却如针尖般敏锐。当他考虑他的下两本书，关于人工智能和联盟的性质时，他仍然对展望未来比回顾过去更感兴趣。

descend into 陷入 stooped adj.弯腰曲背 contemplate v.设想 alliance n.同盟 rake over 不断重提

Mr Kissinger is alarmed by China's and America's intensifying competition for technological and economic pre-eminence. Even as Russia tumbles into China's orbit and war overshadows Europe's eastern flank, he fears that AI is about to supercharge the Sino-American rivalry. Around theworld, the balance of power and the technological basis of warfare are shifting so fast and in so many ways that countries lack any settled principle on which they can establish order. If they cannot find one, they may resort to force. "We' re in the classic pre-world war one situation,"he says, "where neither side has much margin of political concession and in which any disturbance of the equilibrium can lead to catastrophic consequences.”

基辛格先生对中国和美国在技术和经济方面的竞争加剧感到震惊。即使俄罗斯落入中国的轨道，战争笼罩着欧洲的东翼，他也担心人工智能会加剧中美竞争。在世界各地，权力的平衡和战争的技术基础正以如此之快的方式发生变化，以至于各国缺乏任何可以建立秩序的固定原则。如果他们不能找到一个，他们可能会诉诸于武力。"他说："我们正处于典型的第一次世界大战前的情况，"在这种情况下，双方都没有太多的政治让步余地，任何平衡的破坏都可能导致灾难性的后果。”

pre-eminence 卓越 overshadow v.笼罩 flank n.侧翼 supercharge v.加强，增压 rivalry n.竞争 resort v.诉诸 margin n.余地 concession n.让步 disturbance n.打乱 equilibrium n.均衡

Mr Kissinger is reviled by many as a warmonger for his part in the Vietnam war, but he considers the avoidance of conflict between great powers as the focus of his life's work. After witnessing the carnage caused by Nazi Germany and suffering the murder of 13 close relatives in the Holocaust, he became convinced that the only way to prevent ruinous conflict is hard-headed diplomacy, ideally fortified by shared values. "This is the problem that has to be solved,"he says. "And I believe I' ve spent my life trying to deal with it."In his view, the fate of humanity depends on whether America and China can get along. He believes the rapid progress of AI, in particular, leaves them only five-to-ten years to find a way.

基辛格先生因越南战争的角色而被许多人斥为战争贩子，但他认为避免大国之间的冲突是他一生工作的重点。在目睹了纳粹德国造成的大屠杀并在遭受了13名近亲在大屠杀中被杀害后，他开始相信，防止破坏性冲突的唯一途径是坚定理性的外交，最好是以共同的价值观来强化。"这是一个必须解决的问题，"他说。"而且我相信我已经花了一生的时间来处理这个问题。"在他看来，人类的命运取决于美国和中国是否能够和睦相处。他认为，特别是人工智能的快速发展，留给他们的时间只有五到十年，以找到一种方法。

revile v.谩骂 warmonger n.战争贩子 carnage n.大屠杀 ruinous adj.毁灭性的 hard-headed adj. 冷静理性的 fortify v.增强